DIMACS Workshop on The Science of Expert Opinion

October 24 - 25, 2011
DIMACS Center, CoRE Building, Rutgers University

Organizer:

Cliff Behrens, Telcordia, cliff at research.telcordia.com

Workshop Program:

Monday, October 24, 2011											
													
 8:30 -  9:00  Breakfast and Registration 									
													
 9:00 -  9:15  Opening Remarks 										
               Fred Roberts, DIMACS
													
 9:15 -  9:30  Introduction 											
               Cliff Behrens, Telcordia Technologies 									
													
 9:30 - 10:45  Keynote Talk: Eating the Pudding
               Roger M. Cooke, Resources for the Future 								
													
10:45 - 11:00  Coffee Break 											
													
11:00 - 11:45  Training to Improve Judgmental Expertise by Using Decompositions of Judgment Accuracy Measures 		
               Eric Stone, Wake Forest University 									
													
11:45 - 12:30  Use of Expert Judgment in Risk Assessments Involving Complex State Spaces				
               Thomas A. Mazzuchi, The George Washington University 							
													
12:30 -  1:45  Lunch Break 											
													
 1:45 -  2:30  Cultural Consensus Theory: Detecting Experts and their Shared Knowledge 
               William Batchelder, University of California, Irvine
  
 2:30 -  3:15  Overlapping Expert Information: Learning about Dependencies in Expert Judgment			
               Jason R. W. Merrick, Virginia Commonwealth University 							
													
 3:15 -  3:30  Coffee Break 											
													
 3:30 - 4:15   Consensus Building Using E-DEL+I: Lessons Learned 							
               Carolyn Wong,  The RAND Corporation 									
													
 4:15 -  5:00  Combining Multiple Expert Systems using Combinatorial Fusion Analysis					
               D. Frank Hsu, Christina Schweikert and Roger Tsai, Fordham University 					
      													
 5:15          Dinner 												
													
Tuesday, October 25, 2011 											
  													
 8:30 -  9:00  Breakfast and Registration 									
  													
 9:00 -  9:45  Explanations as Indicators of Expertise
               Winston R. Sieck, Global Cognition 									
													
 9:45 - 10:30  Justified Opinions are Better than Simple Ones: The Use of Argumentation Theory in Forming Collective Opinions
               Alexis Tsoukiàs, Université Paris Dauphine 								

10:30 - 10:45  Coffee Break 

10:45 - 11:30  The Wisdom of Competitive Crowds 								
               Casey Lichtendahl, University of Virginia 								
													
11:30 - 12:15  Expert Judgement and Societal Decision Making in a Web-connected World
               Simon French, University of Warwick 									

12:15 -  1:30  Lunch Break 

 1:30 -  2:15  Uncertainty, Expert Judgment, and the Regulatory Process: Challenges and Issues
               Bob Hetes, Environmental Protection Agency 								
													
 2:15 -  3:00  Roles for Elicitation in Physics Information Integration: An Expert's Perspective 
               James Langenbrunner and Jane Booker, Los Alamos National Laboratory 					
               Tim Ross, University of New Mexico 									

 3:00 -  3:15  Coffee Break 

 3:15 -  4:15  General Discussion 										
													
 4:15 -  4:30  Closing Remarks 										
               Cliff Behrens, Telcordia Technologies 					

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