DIMACS Workshop on Markets as Predictive Devices (Information Markets)

February 2-4, 2005
DIMACS Center, CoRE Building, Rutgers University

Robin Hanson, George Mason University,
John Ledyard, California Institute of Technology,
David Pennock, Yahoo! Research Labs,
Presented under the auspices of the Special Focus on Computation and the Socio-Economic Sciences, and the following sponsors:

Microsoft Research: http://research.microsoft.com

Newsfutures: http://www.newsfutures.com Hosting PM2, the Prediction Market Market

Yahoo! Research Labs: http://research.yahoo.com

Workshop Program:

Wednesday, February 2, 2005			
Tutorial Session I	

12:00 -  1:30  Lunch and Registration - 4th Floor, Lounge, CoRE Building
               Registration for the tutorial will be 
               limited to the first 60 registrations.	

 1:30 -  3:00  Information Markets I: Examples, Rules, History, Mechanics, 
               Studies, Participants, Ambiguity, Laws
               Joyce Berg, Accounting, University of Iowa

 3:00 -  3:30  break		
Tutorial Session II			

 3:30 -  5:00  Information Markets II: Theory, Outputs, Inputs, Foul Play, 
               Combinatorics, Applications
               Robin Hanson, Economics, George Mason University	

Thursday, February 3, 2005			
 8:15 -  8:45  Registration and Breakfast - 4th Floor, Lounge, CoRE Building		
 8:45 -  9:00  Welcome and Opening Remarks
               Fred Roberts, DIMACS Director and
               David Pennock, Yahoo! Research Labs
Session: Policy, Politics, & Interpretation
 9:00 -  9:30  Event markets: Commercial viability and regulatory acceptance
               Michael Gorham, Business, Illinois Institute of Technology	
 9:30 -  9:55  Information Markets and Regulation: Opportunities and Challenges
               Robert Hahn, AEI-Brookings Joint Center
 9:55 - 10:20  Information Markets and Politics
               Adam Meirowitz, Politics, Princeton University and 
               Joshua Tucker, Public and International Affairs, Princeton University	
10:20 - 10:45  Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities
               Justin Wolfers, Business, University of Pennsylvania	
10:45 - 11:15  break		
Session: Experimental Economics			

11:15 - 11:40  An Experimental Test of Combinatorial Information Markets
               John Ledyard, Humanities and Social Sciences, 
               California Institute of Technology	

11:40 - 12:05  Information markets and decision makers
               Tony Kwasnica, Management Science, Pennsylvania State University	

12:05 - 12:30  Information aggregation: Experiments and industrial applications
               Kay-yut Chen, Hewlett Packard Labs	

12:30 -  2:00  Lunch		
Session: Business Models, Industry & Field Experience, Part I			

 2:00 -  2:15  Internal markets:  Why and for who?
               Carol Gebert, Incentive Markets	

 2:15 -  2:30  Tee Time with Admiral Poindexter
               Todd Proebsting, Microsoft Research	

 2:30 -  2:45  Information markets as a platform for improved corporate communications
               Steven Ostrover, EconOne	

 2:45 -  3:00  Challenges of Bringing Information Markets to the Organization
               Ken Kittlitz, The Foresight Exchange
 3:00 -  3:15  TBA		
 3:15 -  3:45  break		
Session: Applications and Manipulation
 3:45 -  4:10  Overconfidence and prediction bias in political stock markets
               Carsten Schmidt, Business and Economics, Humboldt University Berlin

 4:10 -  4:35  Expert identification via virtual stock markets: Finding 
               lead users in consumer product markets
               Martin Spann, Business and Economics, Frankfurt University 

 4:35 -  5:00  Are prediction markets robust against manipulation? A lab experiment
               Martin Strobel,Economics, Maastricht University		
 5:00 -  6:00  Rump session (Anyone who requests time can have the floor for five minutes to speak 
               on any relevant topic. To participate in the rump session, please email David Pennock.)
                 I'm glad to see you've all discovered the Delphi method!
                 Murray Turoff, Information Systems, New Jersey Institute of Technology
                 Does money matter?
                 Emile-Servan Schrieber, Newsfutures
                 Auto-arbitrage in multi-outcome markets
                 Emile-Servan Schrieber, Newsfutures

                 A first Israeli prediction market at the IDC
                 Ehud Vaks, Interdisciplinary Center, Hertzeliya, Israel

 7:30 -  9:00  Banquet - the Holiday Inn in South Plainfield	
Friday, February 4, 2005			
 8:30 -  9:00  Registration and Breakfast - 4th Floor, Lounge, CoRE Building		
Session: Manipulation

 9:00 -  9:30  Manipulation in prediction markets: Evidence from historical 
               and contemporary election markets
               Koleman Strumpf, Economics, University of North Carolina 
 9:30 -  9:55  Manipulators increase information market accuracy
               Robin Hanson, Economics, George Mason University	

 9:55 - 10:20  Information aggregation and manipulation in an experimental market
               Ryan Oprea, Economics, George Mason University	
Session: Iowa Electronic Market			

11:15 - 11:40  Operating with doctors: Results from the 2004 and 2005 influenza markets
               George Neumann, Economics, University of Iowa	

11:40 - 12:05  Public signal bias and prediction market accuracy
               Thomas Gruca, Marketing, University of Iowa	

12:05 - 12:30  Searching for Google's value: Using prediction markets 
               to forecast market capitalization prior to an IPO
               Thomas Rietz, Finance, University of Iowa	

12:30 -  2:00  Lunch		
Session: Business Models, Industry & Field Experience, Part II			

 2:00 -  2:15  HedgeStreet: An introduction
               Russell Andersson, Hedgestreet.com

 2:15 -  2:30  Corporate prediction markets: Lessons from the real world
               Emile Servan-Schreiber, Newsfutures	

 2:30 -  2:45  Zocalo: An Open-Source Platform for Deploying Prediction Markets
               Chris Hibbert, CommerceNet	

 2:45 -  3:00  Emphasizing the mundane: Making a business of information markets
               Charles Polk, Common Knowledge Markets

 3:00 -  3:15  TBA		
Session: Computation, Strategies, and Mechanisms

 3:45 -  4:10  Computational complexity issues in information markets
               Lance Fortnow, Computer Science, University of Chicago 

 4:10 -  4:35  Strategic issues in prediction markets
               Michael Wellman, Computer Science, University of Michigan	
 4:35 -  5:00  A dynamic pari-mutuel market for hedging, wagering, 
               and information aggregation
               David Pennock, Yahoo! Research Labs	
 5:00 -  6:00  Post-mortem panel discussion on the Policy Analysis Market 
               (a.k.a., "Terror Futures")		
	       Robin Hanson, Economics, George Mason University	
	       John Ledyard, Humanities and Social Sciences, 
                         California Institute of Technology	
	       Charles Polk, Common Knowledge Markets
               George Neumann, Economics, University of Iowa	

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Document last modified on February 2, 2005.