DIMACS Working Group on Spatio-temporal and Network Modeling of Diseases III

October 21 - 25, 2008
Tubingen, Germany

Organizers:

Martin Eichner, Tubingen University, martin.eichner at uni-tuebingen.de

Nina Fefferman, DIMACS, nina.fefferman at tufts.edu

Valerie Isham, University College, London, valerie@stats.ucl.ac.uk

Alun Lloyd, North Carolina State University, alun_lloyd at ncsu.edu

Denis Mollison, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, denis at ma.hw.ac.uk

Workshop Program:

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

  4:00 pm on - arrival and reception

Registration at Johann Baptist Hirscher Haus in Rottenburg

 6:30 -  8:00  Welcome, introductions, and drinks at Johann Baptist Hirscher Haus

 8:00          Dinner at Württemberger Hof in Rottenburg 


Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Relating models to data I - Chair: Denis Mollison, Heriot-Watt University
 
 9:00 - 11:00  Relating models to data: a review
               Phil O'Neill, Nottingham University

               Elucidating age-specific differences in susceptibility and infectiousness 
               for airborneinfections from data on social contacts and serological status
               Nele Goeyvaerts, Hasselt

               Heterogeneity in host HIV susceptibility as a potential
               contributor to recent HIV prevalence declines in Africa
               Nico Nagelkerke, Al Ain, United Arab Emirates
 
Coffee

11:30 - 12:45  The use of auxiliary information to deal with informatively missing data
               Vern Farewell, Cambridge

               The potential significance of co-circulating pathogens on patterns of spatial spread
               Lisa Sattenspiel, University of Missouri

               Optimal Vaccination Strategies in Periodic Settings
               Nelson Onyango 

Lunch and brief walking tour of Rottenburg

New approaches to modelling

 2:45 -  4:00  Epidemics and rumours on networks
               Valerie Isham, University College

               Is R0 compatible with spatial epidemics? - new
               results from long-range percolation
               Pieter Trapman, Free University of Amsterdam and Utrecht University 

               Network-based targeting of interventions
               Eben Kenah, Harvard University

Coffee

 4:30 -  5:45  Comparison of network models for STI transmission and
               intervention: how useful are they for public health?
               Mirjam Kretzschmar, University Medical Centre, Utrecht

               Laws of large numbers for epidemic
               models with countably many types
               Malwina Luczak, London School of Economics  

               Novel control strategies for vector borne diseases: new challenges for modellers
               Alun Lloyd, North Carolina State University 

Discussion: Future research directions and research challenges - Chair: Alun Lloyd 

 6:00 -  7:00  The top 10 future disease threats
               Tommi Asikainen, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC)  

8:00 - Dinner at Weinstube Stanis in Rottenburg

Thursday, October 23, 2008

Relating models to data II - Chair: Tommi Asikainen

 8:45 - 10:00  On age-dependent branching models for surveillance of
               infectious diseases controlled by additional vaccination
               Maroussia Slavtchova-Bojkova, Sofia University, Bulgaria  

               Non-parametric estimation of transmission functions in emerging epidemics
               Ake Svensson, Stockholm University

               Who infected whom? Estimation of infection trees, generation intervals and local network structure
               Jacco Wallinga, Bilthoven

10:00 Workshop photo and Coffee

10:30 - 12:00  Modeling Networks from partially-observed network data
               Mark Handcock, University of Washington

               Using link-tracing data to inform epidemiology
               Krista Gile, University of Washington 

               Scale-Free Network of Dengue in Singapore  
               Eduadro Massad, University of Sco Paulo 

               What do data from contact tracing tell us?
               Johannes Mueller, Munich

12:00 - Lunch

Integration of modelling scales - Chair: Denis Mollison, Heriot-Watt University

  1:00 -  2:30 Network epidemic models with two levels of mixing
               Frank Ball and David Sirl, Nottingham University

               European demographic and movement data for modelling
               Steven Leach, Health Protection Agency, Porton Down

               Modelling world-wide disease spread: a case for using different spatial scales
               Iain Barass, Oxford University

2:30 onwards Bus to Tübingen - Excursion to Tübingen, Bebenhausen Monastery, and Hagelloch

Discussion: Future research directions and research challenges - Chair: Alun Lloyd

  6:00 -  7:30 Hagelloch Measles
               Klaus Dietz   
 
               Model complexity: holding back the simulation tide
               Neil Ferguson 

               General discussion and pre-dinner drinks

 8:00 - Dinner at Grüner Baum Inn in Hagelloch 


Friday, October 24, 2008

Public health and policy issues - Chair: Valerie Isham, University College,

 9:00 - 10:15 Public health and policy issues on illegal drugs use
              Sheila Bird, Cambridge

              Within Pandemic Forecasting in the UK: Plans for nowcasting, short
              and long term forecasting in an influenza pandemic and the experience gained from exercises
              Peter Grove, Department of Health, London 

              Modelling as a tool for public health, role and structure of European Union wide networks
              Tommi Asikainen, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC),   
  
Coffee

10:45 - 12:30 Modelling and data analysis for antibiotic-resistant pathogens in healthcare settings
              Phil O'Neill, Nottingham University

              Vaccination against seasonal influenza in New Zealand
              Mick Roberts, Massey, Auckland

              Spatial patterns on the edge of dynamic stability: measles in the Sahel
              Matt Ferrari, Penn State

Discussion: Future research directions and research challenges - Chair: Alun Lloyd

12:15 - 12:45 Final discussion

 1:00  Lunch at the Conference Centre of Tübingen University Clinics

 1:30  Change to CRONA Lecture hall 210 of Tübingen University Clinics

 1:45 -  2:30 Influenza in Denmark 1918: three contrasting analyses
              Niels Keiding, Copenhagen 
  
 3:00 -  4:00 Retirement of Klaus DietzOfficial talks by Klaus Dietz and others to mark his retirement

 4:00 -  5:00 Reception and snacks

Visit to Tübingen Castle

 6:00 Reception
 6:30 Guided tour through Tübingen Castle Museum
 7:30 Organ concert in Castle Chapel
 8:00 Dinner in honour of Klaus Dietz at Tübingen Castle, Fürstenzimmer 


Saturday, October 25, 2008: departure

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