DIMACS Working Group on Methodologies for Comparing Vaccination Strategies

May 17 -20, 2004
DIMACS Center, CoRE Building, Rutgers University

Organizers:
John Glasser, CDC, jwg3@cdc.gov
Herbert Hethcote, University of Iowa, herbert-hethcote@uiowa.edu
Presented under the auspices of the Special Focus on Computational and Mathematical Epidemiology.

Link to the DIMACS Workshop on Evolutionary Considerations in Vaccine Use, June 27 - 30, 2005.


Working Group Program:

Our working group will focus on the use of mathematical modeling and computer simulations to design, or evaluate and possibly improve, vaccination programs. Participants will include epidemiologists, modelers, and others interested in vaccine-preventable diseases. We want to develop ideas for new approaches to residual or newly-recognized problems. Presentations of previous work will provide starting points for discussions of new approaches and than work that has already been done, except insofar as it illustrates approaches that promise other applications. Future DIMACS meetings of this working group or subgroups are possible.

Some presentations will be on relevant current work and others will highlight new problems. The organizers will record problems, arrange them into coherent topics, and appoint or allow leaders to emerge from those interested in discussing each topic. In the late afternoon discussions, participants can lead or join discussion groups, with our only requirement being that rapporteurs summarize ideas verbally before supper each day and in writing soon after the meeting. We will be very flexible adapting the program as needs or opportunities arise. Below is our tentative plan, which may be modified at the beginning of the meeting.


Monday, May 17, 2004
 
 8:15 -  9:00  Breakfast and Registration  - 4th floor, CoRE Building 

 9:00 -  9:05  Welcome and Opening Remarks
               Fred Roberts, DIMACS Director

 9:05 - 10:15  New Directions in Modeling Infectious Diseases Plus Discussion 
	       Walt Orenstein, Retired Director of National Immunization Program, CDC

10:15 - 10:45  Break 

10:45 - 12:00  Network Theory in Epidemiology: An Overview of Recent Developments Plus Discussion
	       Alun Lloyd, North Carolina State University 

12:00 -  1:30  Lunch & Discussion  - DIMACS Lounge

 1:30 -  2:30  Strategies for HPV and HIV vaccines Plus Discussion
	       Elamin Elbasha, Merck Corporation 

 2:30 -  3:30  Challenges of modeling the HIV epidemic in the United-States Plus Discussion
	       Kamal Desai, Imperial College, London 

 3:30 -  4:00  Break

 4:00 -  5:00  Effects of varicella vaccination on the incidence of chickenpox and shingles 
	       Plus discussion
	       Herb Hethcote, University of Iowa

 5:00 -  6:30  Group and/or subgroup discussions on advantages and disadvantages of different 
               modeling approaches as deterministic (differential or finite-difference equations, 
               computer simulations), stochastic, Monte Carlo, micro-simulations, networks, 
               and cellular automata.  
	       Facilitators: John Glasser, Herb Hethcote, & others

 6:30          Van to the Hotel

Tuesday, May 18, 2004

 8:15 -  9:00  Breakfast and Registration - 4th floor, CoRE Building 

 9:00 - 10:15  Ongoing work and future needs at WHO Plus Discussion 
	       {measles, tetanus, new and underutilized vaccines (pneumo, rotavirus, yellow fever, je)}
	       Lara Wolfson, WHO

10:15 - 10:45  Break 

10:45 - 12:00  Effects of heterogeneity in hosts and pathogens on effectiveness of vaccination 
	       Plus Discussion
	       Mirjam Kretzschmar, RIVM, The Netherlands 

12:00 -  1:30  Lunch & Discussion  - DIMACS Lounge

 1:30 -  2:30  Insect gene transformations and DNA vaccines for Malaria Plus Discussion
	       Claudio Struchiner, Brazil

 2:30 -  3:30  Comparing Rubella Vaccination Strategies in China Plus Discussion
	       Linda Gao, North Central College

 3:30 -  4:00  Break

 4:00 -  5:00  Modeling pertussis vaccination strategies Plus Discussion
	       John Glasser, National Immunization Program, CDC

 5:00 -  6:30  Group and/or subgroup discussion on open questions for modeling 
               other vaccine-preventable diseases (cholera, diphtheria, hepatitis A & B,  
               pneumococcal, influenza, measles, mumps, rubella, polio, rotavirus, smallpox, 
               varicella, rabies, tuberculosis, Lyme disease, Hantavirus, human papillomavirus, 
               West Nile virus)
	       Facilitators: John Glasser, Herb Hethcote, & others

 6:30 - 8:30   Dinner - Reception - DIMACS Lounge

 8:30          Van to the Hotel

Wednesday, May 19, 2004
 
 8:15 -  9:00  Breakfast and Registration - 4th floor, CoRE Building 
 
 9:00 - 10:15  Modeling vaccination strategies in developing countries Plus Discussion
	       Annelies Van Rie, Dept of Epidemiology, University of North Carolina

10:15 - 10:45  Break 

10:45 - 12:00  Estimating age-specific contact patterns - consequences for optimum 
	       vaccine allocation Plus Discussion    
	       Jacco Wallinga, RIVM, The Netherlands

12:00 -  1:30  Lunch & Discussion  - DIMACS Lounge

 1:30 -  2:30  Design of vaccines and vaccine trials for bacterial infections 
               Plus Discussion
	       Jim Koopman, University of Michigan 

 2:30 -  3:30  Modelling the impact of imperfect vaccines for some infectious diseases 
               Plus Discussion
	       Abba Gumel, University of Manitoba 

 3:30 -  4:00  Break

 4:00 -  6:30  Group and/or subgroup discussions on open questions related to vaccination 
               strategies (optimal number and timing of routine doses, pulse vaccination, 
               National Immunization Days, social networks, control vs. elimination or 
               eradication,  vaccines ameliorate symptoms vs. diminish infectiousness vs. 
               prevent infection, innovative delivery mechanisms (e.g., vectors), designing 
               combination and sequential therapies, vaccination together with antiretroviral 
               drugs in HIV, stockpiling antivirals or antibiotics for use until vaccines available)  
	       Facilitators: John Glasser, Herb Hethcote, & others

 6:30          Van to the Hotel

Thursday, May 20, 2004
 
 8:15 -  9:00  Breakfast and Registration - 4th floor, CoRE Building 
 
 9:00 - 10:15  Potential uses of modeling in vaccine development Plus Discussion
	       Walter Straus, Merck Corporation

10:15 - 10:45  Break
 
10:45 - 12:00  Reports of subgroups, summary of open problems and challenges 
	       Facilitators: John Glasser, Herb Hethcote, & others
  
12:00 -  1:30  Lunch & Discussion  - DIMACS Lounge

               End of meeting


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Document last modified on May 10, 2004.