Link to the DIMACS Workshop on Evolutionary Considerations in Vaccine Use, June 27 - 30, 2005.
Our working group will focus on the use of mathematical modeling and computer simulations to design, or evaluate and possibly improve, vaccination programs. Participants will include epidemiologists, modelers, and others interested in vaccine-preventable diseases. We want to develop ideas for new approaches to residual or newly-recognized problems. Presentations of previous work will provide starting points for discussions of new approaches and than work that has already been done, except insofar as it illustrates approaches that promise other applications. Future DIMACS meetings of this working group or subgroups are possible.
Some presentations will be on relevant current work and others will highlight new problems. The organizers will record problems, arrange them into coherent topics, and appoint or allow leaders to emerge from those interested in discussing each topic. In the late afternoon discussions, participants can lead or join discussion groups, with our only requirement being that rapporteurs summarize ideas verbally before supper each day and in writing soon after the meeting. We will be very flexible adapting the program as needs or opportunities arise. Below is our tentative plan, which may be modified at the beginning of the meeting.
Monday, May 17, 2004 8:15 - 9:00 Breakfast and Registration - 4th floor, CoRE Building 9:00 - 9:05 Welcome and Opening Remarks Fred Roberts, DIMACS Director 9:05 - 10:15 New Directions in Modeling Infectious Diseases Plus Discussion Walt Orenstein, Retired Director of National Immunization Program, CDC 10:15 - 10:45 Break 10:45 - 12:00 Network Theory in Epidemiology: An Overview of Recent Developments Plus Discussion Alun Lloyd, North Carolina State University 12:00 - 1:30 Lunch & Discussion - DIMACS Lounge 1:30 - 2:30 Strategies for HPV and HIV vaccines Plus Discussion Elamin Elbasha, Merck Corporation 2:30 - 3:30 Challenges of modeling the HIV epidemic in the United-States Plus Discussion Kamal Desai, Imperial College, London 3:30 - 4:00 Break 4:00 - 5:00 Effects of varicella vaccination on the incidence of chickenpox and shingles Plus discussion Herb Hethcote, University of Iowa 5:00 - 6:30 Group and/or subgroup discussions on advantages and disadvantages of different modeling approaches as deterministic (differential or finite-difference equations, computer simulations), stochastic, Monte Carlo, micro-simulations, networks, and cellular automata. Facilitators: John Glasser, Herb Hethcote, & others 6:30 Van to the Hotel Tuesday, May 18, 2004 8:15 - 9:00 Breakfast and Registration - 4th floor, CoRE Building 9:00 - 10:15 Ongoing work and future needs at WHO Plus Discussion {measles, tetanus, new and underutilized vaccines (pneumo, rotavirus, yellow fever, je)} Lara Wolfson, WHO 10:15 - 10:45 Break 10:45 - 12:00 Effects of heterogeneity in hosts and pathogens on effectiveness of vaccination Plus Discussion Mirjam Kretzschmar, RIVM, The Netherlands 12:00 - 1:30 Lunch & Discussion - DIMACS Lounge 1:30 - 2:30 Insect gene transformations and DNA vaccines for Malaria Plus Discussion Claudio Struchiner, Brazil 2:30 - 3:30 Comparing Rubella Vaccination Strategies in China Plus Discussion Linda Gao, North Central College 3:30 - 4:00 Break 4:00 - 5:00 Modeling pertussis vaccination strategies Plus Discussion John Glasser, National Immunization Program, CDC 5:00 - 6:30 Group and/or subgroup discussion on open questions for modeling other vaccine-preventable diseases (cholera, diphtheria, hepatitis A & B, pneumococcal, influenza, measles, mumps, rubella, polio, rotavirus, smallpox, varicella, rabies, tuberculosis, Lyme disease, Hantavirus, human papillomavirus, West Nile virus) Facilitators: John Glasser, Herb Hethcote, & others 6:30 - 8:30 Dinner - Reception - DIMACS Lounge 8:30 Van to the Hotel Wednesday, May 19, 2004 8:15 - 9:00 Breakfast and Registration - 4th floor, CoRE Building 9:00 - 10:15 Modeling vaccination strategies in developing countries Plus Discussion Annelies Van Rie, Dept of Epidemiology, University of North Carolina 10:15 - 10:45 Break 10:45 - 12:00 Estimating age-specific contact patterns - consequences for optimum vaccine allocation Plus Discussion Jacco Wallinga, RIVM, The Netherlands 12:00 - 1:30 Lunch & Discussion - DIMACS Lounge 1:30 - 2:30 Design of vaccines and vaccine trials for bacterial infections Plus Discussion Jim Koopman, University of Michigan 2:30 - 3:30 Modelling the impact of imperfect vaccines for some infectious diseases Plus Discussion Abba Gumel, University of Manitoba 3:30 - 4:00 Break 4:00 - 6:30 Group and/or subgroup discussions on open questions related to vaccination strategies (optimal number and timing of routine doses, pulse vaccination, National Immunization Days, social networks, control vs. elimination or eradication, vaccines ameliorate symptoms vs. diminish infectiousness vs. prevent infection, innovative delivery mechanisms (e.g., vectors), designing combination and sequential therapies, vaccination together with antiretroviral drugs in HIV, stockpiling antivirals or antibiotics for use until vaccines available) Facilitators: John Glasser, Herb Hethcote, & others 6:30 Van to the Hotel Thursday, May 20, 2004 8:15 - 9:00 Breakfast and Registration - 4th floor, CoRE Building 9:00 - 10:15 Potential uses of modeling in vaccine development Plus Discussion Walter Straus, Merck Corporation 10:15 - 10:45 Break 10:45 - 12:00 Reports of subgroups, summary of open problems and challenges Facilitators: John Glasser, Herb Hethcote, & others 12:00 - 1:30 Lunch & Discussion - DIMACS Lounge End of meeting