Title: Non-equilibrium stochastic outbreaks: From prediction to control
Speaker: Ira Schwartz, Naval Research Laboratory
Date: Wednesday, November 5, 2003, 1:00 pm
Location: Hill Center, Room 260, Rutgers University, Busch Campus, Piscataway, NJ
Many diseases that oscillate appear to be chaotic in the presence of random fluctuations. However, there are instances in which noise may cause large outbreaks in non-chaotic parameter regimes. To address this problem we will examine the interactions of noise and determinism in models of diseases, and show how the interaction of fluctuations and underlying topology can cause chaotic looking outbreaks. The computational tools can used to for predicting random outbreak's, and designing smart vaccine control.
This work is in collaboration with Lora Billings and Erik Bollt, and is sponsored by ONR, AFMIC, and ARO.
Seminar sponsored by DIMACS/BIOMAPS Seminar Series on Quantitative Biology and Epidemiology.