Title: Threshold Phenomena in Simple Epidemics with Recovery
Speaker: Regina Dolgoarshinnykh, Columbia University
Date: November 7, 2005, 12:00 - 1:30 pm
Location: DIMACS Center, CoRE Bldg, Room 433*, Rutgers University, Busch Campus, Piscataway, NJ
* Note room change
We study disease spread and final outcome under a simple SIRS epidemic dynamics. In the subcritical case the epidemics dies out fast and closely follows mean field approximation to extinction. In the supercritical case the system is endemic for a while and we describe the fluctuations around the stable state as well as the large deviation event leading to extinction of the infection. In the critical and nearly critical case the process converges to a diffusion related to the Feller diffusion by a change of drift. We show that the rescaled size of the epidemic has a limit law that coincides with that of a first-passage time for the standard Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process.
see: DIMACS Computational and Mathematical Epidemiology Seminar Series 2005 - 2006