DIMACS Workshop on Models/Methodological Problems of Botanical Epidemiology
March 16 - 18, 2009
DIMACS Center, CoRE Building, Rutgers University
- Organizers:
- Chris Gilligan, Cambridge, cag1@cus.cam.ac.uk
Presented under the auspices of the Special Focus on Computational and Mathematical Epidemiology.
Workshop Program:
Approach
Each of the topics will address a number of contemporary challenges
in using mathematical and computational models together with
statistical inference and the interface with experimentation and data
collection to improve our understanding of invasion, persistence,
scale and control of plant disease epidemics. It is proposed to spend
part of the meeting in workshop mode reviewing some of these
challenges before considering detailed solutions and proposals for
future research.
Monday, March 16, 2009
8:30 - 9:00 Breakfast and Registration
9:00 - 9:15 Welcome and Opening Remarks
Mel Janowitz, DIMACS Associate Director
9:15 - 9:45 Introduction to the workshop and to models and methodological problems of botanical epidemics
Chris Gilligan, University of Cambridge, UK
Emerging problems in epidemiology
The objective is to summarise some contemporary problems of emerging
diseases and pathotypes in plant pathology and the problems they pose
for epidemiological modelling. One or more case studies will be drawn
from the following:
* UG99 races of stem rust
* Sudden oak death
* Citrus canker and HLB
* Fungicide resistance
* Breakdown of genetical host resistance
9:45 - 10:30 Current problems in control of HLB disease in citrus
Tim Gottwald, ARS- US Horticulture Laboratory, Florida
10:30 - 11:00 Coffee Break
Climate change and food security
While the prevention of crop loss is central to plant pathology,
modelling of the dynamical effects of disease on yield and crop
loss has attracted less research attention than many other areas of
epidemiology. Why and what should be done in:
* Coupling of epidemiological models with crop growth models?
* Coupling of epidemiological models with climate change models?
11:00 - 11:30 Coupling models to weather, and weather to climate: can we do it yet?
Michael Shaw, University of Reading, UK
11:30 - 12:30 Discussion: Emerging problems in epidemiology and
current gaps in models and methodology
12:30 - 2:00 Lunch
Models for population and evolutionary genetics
One of the principal challenges in plant pathology is to understand
how the genetical structures of populations change with time in
response to agricultural and other pressures. This demands an
understanding of population and evolutionary genetics and how these
couple with epidemiological models for disease control. Proposed
topics include:
* Evolutionary effects of disease control strategies on pathogen evolution
* Population genetics of invading pathotypes
2:00 - 2:30 Maintenance of polymorphism in host-parasite interactions: role of ecological, epidemiological and genetic factors
Aurelien Tellier, LMU Munich, Germany
2:30 - 3:00 The evolutionary ecology of plant pathogens
Femke van den Berg, Rothamsted Research, UK
3:00 - 4:00 Discussion: Linking epidemiological models with population and evolutionary genetics
4:00 - 4:30 Coffee Break
Estimation of epidemiological parameters
Models are only as good as the assumptions that underpin them. The
use of models to predict future disease and to optimise the strategies
for control depend upon the parameter values for models, which may be
estimated by statistical inference
* Estimation of epidemiological parameters for emerging epidemics
4:30 - 5:00 Recent advances in parameter estimation and optimal design for epidemic models
Alex Cook, NUS Singapore - presented by Chris Gilligan
5:30 Dinner and reception at DIMACS
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
8:30 - 9:00 Breakfast and Registration
Spatially-explicit models for the spread of disease in the landscape I
Many models now address the epidemiology and control of epidemics in
the landscape, so necessarily involving spatially-explicit models to
account for spatial heterogeneities in host distribution and to
distinguish local from global approaches to disease control. Amongst
modelling topics we shall address the following:
* Percolation and networks
* Metapopulations
* Atmospheric dispersal models
* Data for host distributions
9:00 - 9:30 Modeling disease spread by aerially dispersed pathogens in a patchy landscape
Don Aylor, Connecticut Agricultural Experiment Station
9:30 - 10:00 The influence of landscape pattern on the eradication of an invading plant pathogen
Stephen Parnell, Rothamsted Research, UK
10:00 - 10:30 Multi-scale modelling of potato late-blight epidemics
Wopke van der Werf, Wageningen University, NL
10:30 - 11:00 Coffee Break
11:00 - 11:30 Sampling for detecting and mapping invasive plant pathogens
Inez Demon, Rothamsted Research, UK
11:30 - 12:30 Discussion: Problems in formulating and parameterising spatially-explicit models
12:30 - 2:00 Lunch
Introducing economic considerations
There has long been a disconnect between epidemiological and economic
models, with occasional cross-fertilisation. Yet economic models still
tend to be epidemiologically naïve while many epidemiological models
often fail to treat the social or economic costs and constraints in
deploying control methods. Accordingly we shall consider some recent
developments in:
* Coupling of epidemiological models with economic models
2:00 - 2:15 Introducing economic constraints in spatio-temporal epidemic models
Chris Gilligan, University of Cambridge, UK
2:15 - 2:45 Optimal control of SIR epidemics in interconected regions
Martial Ndeffo-Mbah, University of Cambridge, UK
Models for disease dynamics
There are many approaches to modelling plant disease epidemics but the
SEIR framework and its variants is currently favoured, with increasing
attention to spatial as well as temporal dynamics and often to
stochastic models. Here we briefly consider the toolbox for modelling
botanical epidemics, noting similarities and differences with
livestock and human epidemics. Specifically, we consider how to
introduce the effects of:
* Chemical, genetical, biological and cultural control into epidemiological models
* Weather driven disease and dispersal
2:45 - 3:15 How to model transmission for vectored plant virus diseases
Michael Jeger, Imperial College London, UK
3:15 - 3:45 Karen Garrett, Kansas State University
3:45 - 4:15 Coffee Break
4:15 - 5:00 Interactive discussion led by Nik Cunniffe & Erik DeSimone, University of Cambridge
Computationally-intensive models for stochastic spatio-temporal epidemics
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
8:30 - 9:00 Breakfast and Registration
Spatially-explicit models for the spread of disease in the landscape II
9:00 - 9:30 Aerial dispersal, invasive epidemics, and scaling relationships: empirical evidence
Chris Mundt, Dept Botany & Plant Pathology, Oregon State University
9:30 - 10:00 How does the geometry of migration routes of pathogens impact an epidemics?
Alain Franc, Dept Ecology of Forests, Grasslands and Water, INRA-Bordeaux, France
10:00 - 10:30 Coffee Break
11:00 - 11:30 The interaction of the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of inoculum release and host susceptiblility
Frank Ferrandino, The Connecticut Agricultural Experiment Station
11:30 - 12:00 Network models for the spread of plant disease in trade pathways
Michael Jeger, Division of Biology, Imperial College, UK)
12:00 - 1:00 Discussion: Future strategies for modelling botanical epidemics
1:00 - 2:00 Lunch
Previous: Participation
Next: Registration
Workshop Index
DIMACS Homepage
Contacting the Center
Document last modified on March 13, 2009.