DIMACS Workshop on Models/Methodological Problems of Botanical Epidemiology

March 16 - 18, 2009
DIMACS Center, CoRE Building, Rutgers University

Chris Gilligan, Cambridge, cag1@cus.cam.ac.uk
Presented under the auspices of the Special Focus on Computational and Mathematical Epidemiology.

Workshop Program:

   Each of the topics will address a number of contemporary challenges
   in using mathematical and computational models together with
   statistical inference and the interface with experimentation and data
   collection to improve our understanding of invasion, persistence,
   scale and control of plant disease epidemics. It is proposed to spend
   part of the meeting in workshop mode reviewing some of these
   challenges before considering detailed solutions and proposals for
   future research.

Monday, March 16, 2009

 8:30 -  9:00  Breakfast and Registration
 9:00 -	 9:15  Welcome and Opening Remarks
               Mel Janowitz, DIMACS Associate Director

 9:15 -  9:45  Introduction to the workshop and to models and methodological problems of botanical epidemics	
               Chris Gilligan, University of Cambridge, UK
Emerging problems in epidemiology

   The objective is to summarise some contemporary problems of emerging
   diseases and pathotypes in plant pathology and the problems they pose
   for epidemiological modelling. One or more case studies will be drawn
   from the following: 
               *  UG99 races of stem rust 
               *  Sudden oak death 
               *  Citrus canker and HLB 
               *  Fungicide resistance 
               *  Breakdown of genetical host resistance

 9:45 -	10:30  Current problems in control of HLB disease in citrus
	       Tim Gottwald, ARS- US Horticulture Laboratory, Florida	
10:30 -	11:00  Coffee Break	
Climate change and food security
   While the prevention of crop loss is central to plant pathology,
   modelling of the dynamical effects of disease on yield and crop
   loss has attracted less research attention than many other areas of
   epidemiology. Why and what should be done in:
               *  Coupling of epidemiological models with crop growth models?
               *  Coupling of epidemiological models with climate change models?

11:00 -	11:30  Coupling models to weather, and weather to climate: can we do it yet?
               Michael Shaw, University of Reading, UK	

11:30 -	12:30  Discussion: Emerging problems in epidemiology and
               current gaps in models and methodology
12:30 -	 2:00  Lunch	
Models for population and evolutionary genetics

   One of the principal challenges in plant pathology is to understand
   how the genetical structures of populations change with time in
   response to agricultural and other pressures. This demands an
   understanding of population and evolutionary genetics and how these
   couple with epidemiological models for disease control. Proposed
   topics include:
              *  Evolutionary effects of disease control strategies on pathogen evolution
              *  Population genetics of invading pathotypes

 2:00 -  2:30  Maintenance of polymorphism in host-parasite interactions: role of ecological, epidemiological and genetic factors
               Aurelien Tellier, LMU Munich, Germany	

 2:30 -	 3:00  The evolutionary ecology of plant pathogens
               Femke van den Berg, Rothamsted Research, UK

 3:00 -  4:00  Discussion: Linking epidemiological models with population and evolutionary genetics
 4:00 -	 4:30  Coffee Break 	
Estimation of epidemiological parameters

   Models are only as good as the assumptions that underpin them.  The
   use of models to predict future disease and to optimise the strategies
   for control depend upon the parameter values for models, which may be
   estimated by statistical inference
              *  Estimation of  epidemiological parameters for emerging epidemics

 4:30 -	 5:00  Recent advances in parameter estimation and optimal design for epidemic models
               Alex Cook, NUS Singapore - presented by Chris Gilligan	
 5:30          Dinner and reception at DIMACS	

Tuesday, March 17, 2009

 8:30 -  9:00  Breakfast and Registration	
Spatially-explicit models for the spread of disease in the landscape I

   Many models now address the epidemiology and control of epidemics in
   the landscape, so necessarily involving spatially-explicit models to
   account for spatial heterogeneities in host distribution and to
   distinguish local from global approaches to disease control. Amongst
   modelling topics we shall address the following: 
              *  Percolation and networks 
              *  Metapopulations 
              *  Atmospheric dispersal models 
              *  Data for host distributions

 9:00 -  9:30  Modeling disease spread by aerially dispersed pathogens in a patchy landscape	
               Don Aylor, Connecticut Agricultural Experiment Station	

 9:30 -	10:00  The influence of landscape pattern on the eradication of an invading plant pathogen
               Stephen Parnell, Rothamsted Research, UK	

10:00 - 10:30  Multi-scale modelling of potato late-blight epidemics	
               Wopke van der Werf, Wageningen University, NL

10:30 - 11:00  Coffee Break 	

11:00 - 11:30  Sampling for detecting and mapping invasive plant pathogens
               Inez Demon, Rothamsted Research, UK 

11:30 -	12:30  Discussion: Problems in formulating and parameterising spatially-explicit models

12:30 -	 2:00  Lunch	
Introducing economic considerations

   There has long been a disconnect between epidemiological and economic
   models, with occasional cross-fertilisation. Yet economic models still
   tend to be epidemiologically na´ve while many epidemiological models
   often fail to treat the social or economic costs and constraints in
   deploying control methods. Accordingly we shall consider some recent
   developments in:
               *  Coupling of epidemiological models with economic models

 2:00 -  2:15  Introducing economic constraints in spatio-temporal epidemic models
               Chris Gilligan, University of Cambridge, UK

 2:15 -  2:45  Optimal control of SIR epidemics in interconected regions	
               Martial Ndeffo-Mbah, University of Cambridge, UK
Models for disease dynamics

   There are many approaches to modelling plant disease epidemics but the
   SEIR framework and its variants is currently favoured, with increasing
   attention to spatial as well as temporal dynamics and often to
   stochastic models. Here we briefly consider the toolbox for modelling
   botanical epidemics, noting similarities and differences with
   livestock and human epidemics. Specifically, we consider how to
   introduce the effects of:
             *  Chemical, genetical, biological and cultural control into epidemiological models
             *  Weather driven disease and dispersal

 2:45 -  3:15  How to model transmission for vectored plant virus diseases
               Michael Jeger, Imperial College London, UK

 3:15 -  3:45  Karen Garrett, Kansas State University

 3:45 -  4:15  Coffee Break 	

 4:15 -  5:00  Interactive discussion led by Nik Cunniffe & Erik DeSimone, University of Cambridge	
               Computationally-intensive models for stochastic spatio-temporal epidemics 
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
 8:30 -   9:00	Breakfast and Registration	
Spatially-explicit models for the spread of disease in the landscape II
 9:00 -  9:30  Aerial dispersal, invasive epidemics, and scaling relationships: empirical evidence
               Chris Mundt, Dept Botany & Plant Pathology, Oregon State University	

 9:30 - 10:00  How does the geometry of migration routes of pathogens impact an epidemics?
               Alain Franc, Dept Ecology of Forests, Grasslands and Water, INRA-Bordeaux, France
10:00 - 10:30  Coffee Break	
11:00 - 11:30  The interaction of the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of inoculum release and host susceptiblility
 	       Frank Ferrandino, The Connecticut Agricultural Experiment Station
11:30 - 12:00  Network models for the spread of plant disease in trade pathways
               Michael Jeger, Division of Biology, Imperial College, UK)

12:00 -  1:00  Discussion: Future strategies for modelling botanical epidemics

 1:00 -  2:00  Lunch	

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Document last modified on March 13, 2009.