DIMACS/DyDAn Workshop on Climate and Disease

April 7 - 8, 2008
DIMACS/DyDAn Center, CoRE Building, Rutgers University

Organizers:

Benjamin A. Cash, Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, bcash at cola.iges.org

Andrew Dobson, Princeton University, dobber at princeton.edu

Jim Kinter, Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, kinter at cola.iges.org

Mercedes Pascual, University of Michigan, pascual at umich.edu

Workshop Program:

Monday, April 7, 2008

 8:00 -  8:50  Breakfast and Registration

 8:50 -  9:00  Welcome and Opening Remarks
               Fred Roberts, DIMACS Director

 9:00 -  9:40  Introduction: Mercedes Pascual 

Prediction 1: Early-warning Systems and Climate Variability 
 
 9:45 - 10:25  Climate Information for Public Health Decision Making
               Madeleine Thomson and Stephen Connor, IRI 

10:25 - 10:45  Break

10:45 - 11:25  Climate and Health: Prediction from Seasonal to Climate Change Time-scales
               Simon Mason, IRI 

11:30 - 12:10  Predictability of Climate Indices Related to Infectious Diseases 
               Timothy DelSole, George Mason University 
 
12:10 -  1:30  Lunch

Prediction 2: Scenarios and Climate Change 

 1:30 -  2:10  Here and here; now and then. How we incorporate 
               Space and Time into epidemiological understanding
               David Rogers, Oxford University 

 2:15 -  2:40  Risk Maps for Lyme Disease Emergence in Canada: Vector Biology, 
               Climate Change and Public Health
               Nicholas Ogden, University of Montreal

 2:40 -  3:00  Break

 3:00 -  3:40  Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Malaria in Africa at 
               Landscape and Continental Scales
               Christopher Thomas, Aberystwyth University 

 3:45 -  4:25  Using Scenarios to Plan Climate Uncertainty
               Holly Hartmann, University of Arizona 

 4:30 -  5:00  Discussion

 5:00 -  6:00  Wine and Cheese Reception


Tuesday, April 8, 2008

 8:30 -  9:00  Breakfast and Registration

Challenges 1: Relevant Scales of Coupling 
 
 9:00 -  9:40  Forecasting Parasitic Disease in Domestic Animals: 
               an Historical Perspective
               Gary Smith, University of Pennsylvania

 9:45 - 10:25  Inferring Local Climate from General Circulation Model's Projections. 
               An Overview of Statistical Downscaling Approaches
               Claudia Tebaldi, NCAR 

10:25 - 10:45  Break

10:45 - 11:15  Influence of Climate on the Ecology and Evolution of 
               Host-pathogen and Vector-parasite Interactions
               Matthew Thomas, Penn State University

11:20 - 11:50  Identifying and Isolating Influences on Regional Climate: 
               Implications for Disease Prediction
               Benjamin Cash, Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies  

11:50 -  1:00  Lunch

Challenges 2: Do Disease Dynamics Matter? 
 
 1:00 -  1:40  Seasonality and the Factors that Lead to Multi-annual 
               Cycles through Resonance in a Model of Malaria
               Mike Boots, The University of Sheffield

 1:45 -  2:25  Seasonality, Climate Change and the Dynamics of Infectious 
               Diseases of Wildlife
               Giulio DeLeo, Universita degli Studi di Parma

 2:25 -  2:45  Break

 2:45 -  3:15  Hydrologic Monitoring and Modelling of Mosquito-Borne
               Disease Transmission
               Jeffrey Shaman, Oregon State University

 3:20 -  3:50  Climate Change and Disease: the Need for Covariates 
               and Two-tailed Predictions
               Kevin Lafferty, USGS and UC Santa Barbara

 4:00 -  5:00  Discussion

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