Link to the DIMACS Workshop on Evolutionary Considerations in Vaccine Use, June 27 - 30, 2005.
Our working group will focus on the use of mathematical modeling and computer simulations to design, or evaluate and possibly improve, vaccination programs. Participants will include epidemiologists, modelers, and others interested in vaccine-preventable diseases. We want to develop ideas for new approaches to residual or newly-recognized problems. Presentations of previous work will provide starting points for discussions of new approaches and than work that has already been done, except insofar as it illustrates approaches that promise other applications. Future DIMACS meetings of this working group or subgroups are possible.
Some presentations will be on relevant current work and others will highlight new problems. The organizers will record problems, arrange them into coherent topics, and appoint or allow leaders to emerge from those interested in discussing each topic. In the late afternoon discussions, participants can lead or join discussion groups, with our only requirement being that rapporteurs summarize ideas verbally before supper each day and in writing soon after the meeting. We will be very flexible adapting the program as needs or opportunities arise. Below is our tentative plan, which may be modified at the beginning of the meeting.
Monday, May 17, 2004
8:15 - 9:00 Breakfast and Registration - 4th floor, CoRE Building
9:00 - 9:05 Welcome and Opening Remarks
Fred Roberts, DIMACS Director
9:05 - 10:15 New Directions in Modeling Infectious Diseases Plus Discussion
Walt Orenstein, Retired Director of National Immunization Program, CDC
10:15 - 10:45 Break
10:45 - 12:00 Network Theory in Epidemiology: An Overview of Recent Developments Plus Discussion
Alun Lloyd, North Carolina State University
12:00 - 1:30 Lunch & Discussion - DIMACS Lounge
1:30 - 2:30 Strategies for HPV and HIV vaccines Plus Discussion
Elamin Elbasha, Merck Corporation
2:30 - 3:30 Challenges of modeling the HIV epidemic in the United-States Plus Discussion
Kamal Desai, Imperial College, London
3:30 - 4:00 Break
4:00 - 5:00 Effects of varicella vaccination on the incidence of chickenpox and shingles
Plus discussion
Herb Hethcote, University of Iowa
5:00 - 6:30 Group and/or subgroup discussions on advantages and disadvantages of different
modeling approaches as deterministic (differential or finite-difference equations,
computer simulations), stochastic, Monte Carlo, micro-simulations, networks,
and cellular automata.
Facilitators: John Glasser, Herb Hethcote, & others
6:30 Van to the Hotel
Tuesday, May 18, 2004
8:15 - 9:00 Breakfast and Registration - 4th floor, CoRE Building
9:00 - 10:15 Ongoing work and future needs at WHO Plus Discussion
{measles, tetanus, new and underutilized vaccines (pneumo, rotavirus, yellow fever, je)}
Lara Wolfson, WHO
10:15 - 10:45 Break
10:45 - 12:00 Effects of heterogeneity in hosts and pathogens on effectiveness of vaccination
Plus Discussion
Mirjam Kretzschmar, RIVM, The Netherlands
12:00 - 1:30 Lunch & Discussion - DIMACS Lounge
1:30 - 2:30 Insect gene transformations and DNA vaccines for Malaria Plus Discussion
Claudio Struchiner, Brazil
2:30 - 3:30 Comparing Rubella Vaccination Strategies in China Plus Discussion
Linda Gao, North Central College
3:30 - 4:00 Break
4:00 - 5:00 Modeling pertussis vaccination strategies Plus Discussion
John Glasser, National Immunization Program, CDC
5:00 - 6:30 Group and/or subgroup discussion on open questions for modeling
other vaccine-preventable diseases (cholera, diphtheria, hepatitis A & B,
pneumococcal, influenza, measles, mumps, rubella, polio, rotavirus, smallpox,
varicella, rabies, tuberculosis, Lyme disease, Hantavirus, human papillomavirus,
West Nile virus)
Facilitators: John Glasser, Herb Hethcote, & others
6:30 - 8:30 Dinner - Reception - DIMACS Lounge
8:30 Van to the Hotel
Wednesday, May 19, 2004
8:15 - 9:00 Breakfast and Registration - 4th floor, CoRE Building
9:00 - 10:15 Modeling vaccination strategies in developing countries Plus Discussion
Annelies Van Rie, Dept of Epidemiology, University of North Carolina
10:15 - 10:45 Break
10:45 - 12:00 Estimating age-specific contact patterns - consequences for optimum
vaccine allocation Plus Discussion
Jacco Wallinga, RIVM, The Netherlands
12:00 - 1:30 Lunch & Discussion - DIMACS Lounge
1:30 - 2:30 Design of vaccines and vaccine trials for bacterial infections
Plus Discussion
Jim Koopman, University of Michigan
2:30 - 3:30 Modelling the impact of imperfect vaccines for some infectious diseases
Plus Discussion
Abba Gumel, University of Manitoba
3:30 - 4:00 Break
4:00 - 6:30 Group and/or subgroup discussions on open questions related to vaccination
strategies (optimal number and timing of routine doses, pulse vaccination,
National Immunization Days, social networks, control vs. elimination or
eradication, vaccines ameliorate symptoms vs. diminish infectiousness vs.
prevent infection, innovative delivery mechanisms (e.g., vectors), designing
combination and sequential therapies, vaccination together with antiretroviral
drugs in HIV, stockpiling antivirals or antibiotics for use until vaccines available)
Facilitators: John Glasser, Herb Hethcote, & others
6:30 Van to the Hotel
Thursday, May 20, 2004
8:15 - 9:00 Breakfast and Registration - 4th floor, CoRE Building
9:00 - 10:15 Potential uses of modeling in vaccine development Plus Discussion
Walter Straus, Merck Corporation
10:15 - 10:45 Break
10:45 - 12:00 Reports of subgroups, summary of open problems and challenges
Facilitators: John Glasser, Herb Hethcote, & others
12:00 - 1:30 Lunch & Discussion - DIMACS Lounge
End of meeting
Previous: List of Participants
Working Group Index
DIMACS Homepage