DIMACS Workshop on Facing the Challenge of Infectious Diseases in Africa: The Role of Mathematical Modeling

September 25 - 27, 2006
University of the Witwatersrand (Wits)
Sports Administration Building - the West Campus
Johannesburg, South Africa

Organizers:
Dominic Clemence, North Carolina AT&T State University, clemence@ncat.edu
Wayne Getz, UC Berkeley, getz@nature.berkeley.edu
Abba Gumel, University of Manitoba, gumelab@cc.umanitoba.ca
John Hargrove, SACEMA Director, jhargrove@sun.ac.za
Edward Lungu, University of Botswana, lunguem@noka.ub.bw
Fred Roberts, DIMACS, froberts@dimacs.rutgers.edu
Presented under the auspices of the Special Focus on Computational and Mathematical Epidemiology.

This workshop is jointly organized with African Institute for Mathematical Sciences (AIMS),
South African Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA) and University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg.

This workshop is jointly sponsored by:


Workshop Program:

Information for speakers


Monday, September 25, 2006

 8:30 -  8:50  Opening Remarks: Abba Gumel Program Chair 
               John Hargrove, SACEMA; Fritz Hahne, AIMS; Abba Gumel, University of Manitoba; 
               Fred Roberts, DIMACS; David Sherwell, WITS; Alex Welte, WITS
             
Session I: Current State of Infectious Diseases in Africa and Special Challenges for Mathematical Modeling (Part I)

 8:50 -  9:20  Problems in African Epidemiology: How Can SACEMA Help?
               John Hargrove, SACEMA

 9:25 -  9:55  Conjoined Epidemics: a New Problem for Southern Africa
               J.C.A. Davies, School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand

10:00 - 10:20  Break

10:20 - 10:50  Overview of the State of Infectious Diseases in South Africa
               Diana Dickinson, Physician and Director of Medical Services, Botswana

10:55 - 11:25  Modeling Transmission Dynamics of HIV/AIDS and Co-Infection with 
               Other Diseases: Some Results, Issues, and Challenges
               Abba Gumel, University of Manitoba

11:30 - 12:00  So Much to Model, So Little Time (Current Examples of Epidemiological 
               and Physiological Research in South Africa)
               Alex Welte, University of the Witwatersrand

12:00 -  1:15  Lunch and Informal Discussion

Session I: Current State of Infectious Diseases in Africa and Special Challenges for Mathematical Modeling (Part II)

 1:15 -  1:45  New Challenges for Modelers (and Role of Discrete Mathematics and DIMACS) 
               Fred Roberts, DIMACS

Session II: Mathematical Modeling of Diseases that Inflict a Significant Burden on Africa: HIV/AIDS (Part I):

 1:50 -  2:20  Effects of Vertical Transmission on the Spread of HIV/AIDS in 
               the Presence of Treatment
               Edward Lungu, University of Botswana
     
 2:25 -  2:55  The Potential Role of HPV Infection in Vertical HIV Transmission
               David Hill, Stanford University

 3:00 -  3:30  Maternal Herpes Simplex Virus Type 2 Infection and Risk of
               Intra-Partum Transmission of HIV: Results of a Nested
               Case Control Study
               Frances M Cowan, Royal Free and University College Medical School, University College London

 3:30 -  3:55  Break

 3:55 -  4:25  HIV-RNA Sequence Prediction: A Lattice Walk Approach to 
               Modeling Sequences of the HIV-1 RNA Structure
               Asamoah Nkwanta, Morgan State University

 4:25 -  6:00  Discussion Groups 

               Evening: Social Event (optional)

Tuesday, September 26, 2006

Session III: Mathematical Modeling of Diseases that Inflict a Significant Burden on Africa: HIV/AIDS (Part II):

 8:30 -  9:00  The Role of Mathematical Modelling in Epidemiology with 
               Particular Reference to HIV/AIDS
               Senelani Dorothy Musekwa, National University of Science and Technology

Session IV: Mathematical Modeling of Diseases that Inflict a Significant Burden on Africa: Other Diseases (Part III)
    
 9:05 -  9:35  Evaluating the Potential Burden of Zoonotic Mycobactria in Africa
               Can Modelling Disease in Wildlife Populations Help? 
               Claire Geoghegan, University of Pretoria and Wayne Getz, UC Berkeley

 9:40 - 10:10  Spatial Coherence and the Association of Temperature, Rainfall with the 
               Incidence of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever  
               Derek Cummings and Donald Burke, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and
               University of Pittsburgh

10:15 - 10:35  Break

10:35 - 11:05  Insights from Economic-Epidemiology
               Ramanan Laximinarayan, Resources for the Future

11:10 - 12:10  Discussion Groups II

12:10 -  1:30  Lunch and Informal Discussion (and set up of posters)

Session V: Mathematical Modeling of Diseases that Inflict a Significant Burden on Africa: Other Diseases (Part IV)

 1:30 -  2:00  Epidemics in Strongly Fluctuating Populations 
               (with Some Discussion of Animal Diseases)
               Aziz Yakabu, Howard University

 2:05 -  2:35  Evaluating the Predictive Power of R0 in Wildlife Populations: 
               Dueling Timescales of Host Movement and Disease Dynamics
               Philip Johnson and Wayne Getz, UC Berkeley

Session VI: Optimization of Scarce Public Health Resources (I)

 2:40 -  3:20  Break

Session VII: Modeling Issues Arising from the Threat of Emerging Diseases in Resource-Poor Countries: Pandemic Flu

 3:20 -  3:50  SARS Outbreaks in Toronto, Hong Kong and Singapore: The Role of 
               Diagnosis and Isolation as a Control Mechanism
               Gerardo Chowell-Puente, Los Alamos National Laboratory

 3:55 -  4:25  Assessing Transmission Control Measures, Antivirals and Vaccine in
               Curtailing Pandemic Influenza: Scenarios for the US, UK, and South Africa
               Miriam Nuno, Harvard School of Public Health

 4:30 -  5:45  Poster Session

               Evening: Banquet

Wednesday, September 27, 2006

Session VIII: Vaccination Strategies

 8:30 -  9:00  Estimating the Benefit of a HIV-1 Vaccine that Reduces Viral Load Set Point
               Swati B Gupta, Merck Research Laboratories

 9:05 -  9:35  A Cost Effective Analysis of Alternative HPV Vaccination Strategies
               Elamin Elbasha, Merck Research

 9:40 - 10:10  Models of New Vaccines for Measles
               Derek Cummings, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health

10:15 - 10:35  Break

10:35 - 11:05  A Model in Which Successive Infections With or Vaccinations Against 
               Rotavirus Increase Immunity, Progressively Mitigating Symptoms
               John Glasser, CDC

Session IX: Optimization of Scarce Public Health Resources (II) 

11:10 - 11:40  Optimize What? Issues in Optimizing Public Health
               Resources through Mathematical Modeling
               Michael Washington, CDC

11:45 - 12:15  Preparing Social Infrastructure Against
               Disease-Related Workforce Depletion
               Nina Fefferman, DIMACS and Tufts University

12:20 -  1:30  Lunch and Informal Discussion

 1:30 -  3:00  Discussion Group Presentations, with Discussion

 3:00 -  3:20  Break

 3:20 -  4:50  Panel on "Next Steps"
               Chaired by Abba Gumel
               Panelists: Diana Dickinson, Fritz Hahne, John Hargrove, Fred Roberts,
               Alex Welte, and Frances Cowan

Posters

Information for poster presenters


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Document last modified on October 3, 2006.