This workshop is jointly organized with African Institute for Mathematical Sciences (AIMS),
South African Centre for
Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA) and University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg.
This workshop is jointly sponsored by:
Monday, September 25, 2006
8:30 - 8:50 Opening Remarks: Abba Gumel Program Chair
John Hargrove, SACEMA; Fritz Hahne, AIMS; Abba Gumel, University of Manitoba;
Fred Roberts, DIMACS; David Sherwell, WITS; Alex Welte, WITS
Session I: Current State of Infectious Diseases in Africa and Special Challenges for Mathematical Modeling (Part I)
8:50 - 9:20 Problems in African Epidemiology: How Can SACEMA Help?
John Hargrove, SACEMA
9:25 - 9:55 Conjoined Epidemics: a New Problem for Southern Africa
J.C.A. Davies, School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand
10:00 - 10:20 Break
10:20 - 10:50 Overview of the State of Infectious Diseases in South Africa
Diana Dickinson, Physician and Director of Medical Services, Botswana
10:55 - 11:25 Modeling Transmission Dynamics of HIV/AIDS and Co-Infection with
Other Diseases: Some Results, Issues, and Challenges
Abba Gumel, University of Manitoba
11:30 - 12:00 So Much to Model, So Little Time (Current Examples of Epidemiological
and Physiological Research in South Africa)
Alex Welte, University of the Witwatersrand
12:00 - 1:15 Lunch and Informal Discussion
Session I: Current State of Infectious Diseases in Africa and Special Challenges for Mathematical Modeling (Part II)
1:15 - 1:45 New Challenges for Modelers (and Role of Discrete Mathematics and DIMACS)
Fred Roberts, DIMACS
Session II: Mathematical Modeling of Diseases that Inflict a Significant Burden on Africa: HIV/AIDS (Part I):
1:50 - 2:20 Effects of Vertical Transmission on the Spread of HIV/AIDS in
the Presence of Treatment
Edward Lungu, University of Botswana
2:25 - 2:55 The Potential Role of HPV Infection in Vertical HIV Transmission
David Hill, Stanford University
3:00 - 3:30 Maternal Herpes Simplex Virus Type 2 Infection and Risk of
Intra-Partum Transmission of HIV: Results of a Nested
Case Control Study
Frances M Cowan, Royal Free and University College Medical School, University College London
3:30 - 3:55 Break
3:55 - 4:25 HIV-RNA Sequence Prediction: A Lattice Walk Approach to
Modeling Sequences of the HIV-1 RNA Structure
Asamoah Nkwanta, Morgan State University
4:25 - 6:00 Discussion Groups
Evening: Social Event (optional)
Tuesday, September 26, 2006
Session III: Mathematical Modeling of Diseases that Inflict a Significant Burden on Africa: HIV/AIDS (Part II):
8:30 - 9:00 The Role of Mathematical Modelling in Epidemiology with
Particular Reference to HIV/AIDS
Senelani Dorothy Musekwa, National University of Science and Technology
Session IV: Mathematical Modeling of Diseases that Inflict a Significant Burden on Africa: Other Diseases (Part III)
9:05 - 9:35 Evaluating the Potential Burden of Zoonotic Mycobactria in Africa
Can Modelling Disease in Wildlife Populations Help?
Claire Geoghegan, University of Pretoria and Wayne Getz, UC Berkeley
9:40 - 10:10 Spatial Coherence and the Association of Temperature, Rainfall with the
Incidence of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever
Derek Cummings and Donald Burke, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and
University of Pittsburgh
10:15 - 10:35 Break
10:35 - 11:05 Insights from Economic-Epidemiology
Ramanan Laximinarayan, Resources for the Future
11:10 - 12:10 Discussion Groups II
12:10 - 1:30 Lunch and Informal Discussion (and set up of posters)
Session V: Mathematical Modeling of Diseases that Inflict a Significant Burden on Africa: Other Diseases (Part IV)
1:30 - 2:00 Epidemics in Strongly Fluctuating Populations
(with Some Discussion of Animal Diseases)
Aziz Yakabu, Howard University
2:05 - 2:35 Evaluating the Predictive Power of R0 in Wildlife Populations:
Dueling Timescales of Host Movement and Disease Dynamics
Philip Johnson and Wayne Getz, UC Berkeley
Session VI: Optimization of Scarce Public Health Resources (I)
2:40 - 3:20 Break
Session VII: Modeling Issues Arising from the Threat of Emerging Diseases in Resource-Poor Countries: Pandemic Flu
3:20 - 3:50 SARS Outbreaks in Toronto, Hong Kong and Singapore: The Role of
Diagnosis and Isolation as a Control Mechanism
Gerardo Chowell-Puente, Los Alamos National Laboratory
3:55 - 4:25 Assessing Transmission Control Measures, Antivirals and Vaccine in
Curtailing Pandemic Influenza: Scenarios for the US, UK, and South Africa
Miriam Nuno, Harvard School of Public Health
4:30 - 5:45 Poster Session
Evening: Banquet
Wednesday, September 27, 2006
Session VIII: Vaccination Strategies
8:30 - 9:00 Estimating the Benefit of a HIV-1 Vaccine that Reduces Viral Load Set Point
Swati B Gupta, Merck Research Laboratories
9:05 - 9:35 A Cost Effective Analysis of Alternative HPV Vaccination Strategies
Elamin Elbasha, Merck Research
9:40 - 10:10 Models of New Vaccines for Measles
Derek Cummings, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
10:15 - 10:35 Break
10:35 - 11:05 A Model in Which Successive Infections With or Vaccinations Against
Rotavirus Increase Immunity, Progressively Mitigating Symptoms
John Glasser, CDC
Session IX: Optimization of Scarce Public Health Resources (II)
11:10 - 11:40 Optimize What? Issues in Optimizing Public Health
Resources through Mathematical Modeling
Michael Washington, CDC
11:45 - 12:15 Preparing Social Infrastructure Against
Disease-Related Workforce Depletion
Nina Fefferman, DIMACS and Tufts University
12:20 - 1:30 Lunch and Informal Discussion
1:30 - 3:00 Discussion Group Presentations, with Discussion
3:00 - 3:20 Break
3:20 - 4:50 Panel on "Next Steps"
Chaired by Abba Gumel
Panelists: Diana Dickinson, Fritz Hahne, John Hargrove, Fred Roberts,
Alex Welte, and Frances Cowan
Posters
Information for poster presenters
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