>
> Scot,
>
> So, if I change the [brain] to [heart] in the problem:
>
> "> > > An alien picks a jar at random from a stockroom. The stockroom
> contains
> > > > an equal number of jars containing a single brain and jars containing a
> > > > single heart. The alien then adds a brain to the jar, shakes it, and
> > > > removes at random one of the two organs in the jar. The organ removed turns
> > > > out to be a [heart]. What is the probability that the original jar contained a
> > > > [heart]? "
>
> the probability then is 1? [Case 4) above.]
>
> I shall test this in our next poker game --- a sure win, right? Thanks.
>
> duncan
Oops, the answer is 0! It's not a sure win after all.
duncan